Evaluating the impact of climate change on different sectors is important to assess how vulnerable the sector is to climate change and can be critical for adaptation planning and climate change mainstreaming. Current and future impacts, magnitude of the impact and distribution of the impact are important questions that needs to be answered for effective planning and policy. Some of these policies attempt to do understand these impacts and how to effectively adapt to those impacts
Below are some of my papers in this area:
1.South-East Asian farmer perceptions of climate change: Climate Change Economics
A survey of farmers in Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam reveals that farmers are keenly aware of even slight changes in their climate. Over 90% of the farmers interviewed perceived small changes in temperature or precipitation patterns where they lived. Over half claimed to have changed their irrigation, timing, or crop choices because of climate change. Although the link between perceived changes and stated adaptations is weak, farmers are aware of the types of changes they need to make in response to climate change in South-East Asia. Adaptation responses must be firmly grounded in not only local conditions but also the views of participants at the front lines of climate change impacts. The knowledge base of farmers grappling with the challenges of climate change must be taken into account when policy responses to support adaptation are formulated.
2. Structural Ricardian analysis of South-East Asian agriculture: Climate Change Economics
This paper examines the impact of climate change on the net revenue (NR) of farmers from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Two Ricardian models are estimated: (1) a traditional Ricardian model of the impact of climate change on annual farm NR and (2) a structural Ricardian model that first estimates the number of growing seasons and then the net revenue per season. The traditional model reveals annual NR is sensitive to autumn and summer climate variables. The seasonal effects offset each other so that uniform marginal effects are insignificant. Future climate scenarios likely harm Sri Lanka but could either benefit or harm Indonesia depending on the climate scenario. The structural Ricardian model suggests climate change will reduce the net revenue of three-season farms and increase the revenue of one-season farms causing farmers to switch from three-season farming to one-season farming. Expected losses by 2100 for the region range from -10% to -18%. Impacts in Indonesia may be higher ranging from -20% to -28%
3. The economics of crop adaptation to climate change in South-East Asia: Climate Change Economics
We examine the potential for farmers in South-East Asia to adapt to climate change using a survey of farmers from Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam. We model farmers’ current choices using cross-sectional analysis. We test the climate sensitivity of when to plant, which crop to plant, whether to irrigate and how much inputs to use. We find that all these choices are sensitive to climate in this region. Farmers are likely to adapt to future climate change by growing more rice and oilseed crops, planting more often from November through March, and relying more heavily on groundwater irrigation for water short seasons.
4. South-East Asian Ricardian Studies: Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam: Climate Change Economics
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Vietnam each conducted a Ricardian analysis of crop net revenue (NR) in their country. The countries defined seasons slightly differently depending on their monsoon and dry periods. They also sometimes included slightly different variables in their regressions. The countries are small so that the climate results are often insignificant. However, the Ricardian model does predict near term damage in Bangladesh in the CanESM climate scenario and near and far term damage in Thailand in the CMCC climate scenario.
A linear public good experiment adopted from Holt and Laury [1997. Classroom games: Voluntary provision of a public good. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11(4), 209–215.] has been employed to investigate strategic behaviour in pollution abatement among African climate decision-makers. The experiment consisted of three groups, of which groups 2 and 3 received one and two treatments, respectively. The first treatment entailed publicly disclosing the pollution of each member of a group by placing a corresponding colour-coded card in front of each subject, while the second involved the withdrawal of the public disclosure. Group 2 received the first treatment; Group 3 received both the first and second treatments in succession. We found that the untreated group (baseline) polluted more than the two treated groups, and there was no statistically significant difference between the pollution abatement of the two treated groups. These results suggest that public disclosure potentially drives pollution abatement and that its eventual withdrawal does not obliterate abatement behaviour. We did not observe conditional cooperation but average pollution declined over time. Furthermore, individuals who thought it was unfair for Africa to reduce emissions polluted more. We also found that pollution levels differ significantly between males and females.
The economic landscape of most African countries depends essentially on the dynamics of climate change. Key sectors driving their economic performance and livelihoods such as agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism, coastal and water resources are highly vulnerable to climate change. This article examines the empirical linkage between economic growth and climate change in Africa. Using annual data for 34 countries from 1961 to 2009, we find a negative impact of climate change on economic growth. Our results show that a 1°C increase in temperature reduces gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 0.67 percentage point. Evidence from sensitivity analysis shows the two largest economies in the Sub-Saharan Africa (Nigeria and South Africa) play a significant role in ameliorating the negative economic impact of climate change in the region. In addition to impact on Africa, this article provides estimates of the impact of climate change on GDP growth of these 34 countries, which can be valuable in appraising national adaptation plans. We do not find evidence that average long-run temperature changes affect long-run economic growth as measured by 5 year averages.
8. Ecosystem based adaptation game:
We introduce a pedagogical game that demonstrates some useful concepts in payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptation practices of uncertain idiosyncratic value for small farmers in a developing country. Participants play the role of subsistence farmers whose current practices cause erosion that pollutes waterways.